{"id":1115917,"date":"2022-05-31T13:01:24","date_gmt":"2022-05-31T12:01:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/?p=1115917"},"modified":"2022-05-31T13:01:26","modified_gmt":"2022-05-31T12:01:26","slug":"fitch-ratings-les-reserves-internationales-de-la-tunisie-serodent","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/2022\/05\/31\/fitch-ratings-les-reserves-internationales-de-la-tunisie-serodent\/","title":{"rendered":"Fitch Ratings\u00a0: \u00abLes r\u00e9serves internationales de la Tunisie s’\u00e9rodent\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Fitch Ratings estime que le gouvernement tunisien et l’influente Union g\u00e9n\u00e9rale tunisienne du travail (UGTT) pourraient forger un consensus sur un ensemble de r\u00e9formes \u00e9conomiques qui pourraient d\u00e9bloquer le financement du Fonds mon\u00e9taire international (FMI) et soutenir la position de financement ext\u00e9rieur du pays, mais les tensions sur la future configuration institutionnelle, par allusion au projet de r\u00e9forme constitutionnelle initi\u00e9 par le pr\u00e9sident de la r\u00e9publique Ka\u00efs Sa\u00efed, entravent cet accord.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

\u00abCela augmente les risques pour notre sc\u00e9nario de base de l’entr\u00e9e de la Tunisie dans un programme du FMI d’ici la fin du 3e trimestre 2022\u00bb,<\/em> a soulign\u00e9 l’agence dans une note publi\u00e9e lundi 30 mai.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La Tunisie pourrait \u00ab\u00e9chouer\u00bb devant le Club de Paris<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Dans un sc\u00e9nario sans r\u00e9forme, la Tunisie pourrait finalement \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9e comme n\u00e9cessitant un traitement de la dette du Club de Paris avant de devenir \u00e9ligible \u00e0 un financement suppl\u00e9mentaire du FMI, avec des implications pour les cr\u00e9anciers du secteur priv\u00e9, a indiqu\u00e9 Fitch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00abMalgr\u00e9 la mont\u00e9e des risques financiers et politiques, nous nous attendons toujours \u00e0 ce que la Tunisie pr\u00e9sente un plan de r\u00e9forme cr\u00e9dible au FMI, avec un financement important des cr\u00e9anciers officiels d\u00e9caiss\u00e9 d’ici la fin de l’ann\u00e9e\u00bb<\/em>, a indiqu\u00e9 l’agence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00abL’annonce par l’UGTT, le 23 mai, qu’elle ne participerait pas \u00e0 un dialogue national propos\u00e9 par le pr\u00e9sident pour soutenir les r\u00e9formes politiques et qu’elle organiserait une gr\u00e8ve nationale du secteur public a mis en \u00e9vidence des divergences de vision sur le processus de r\u00e9forme\u00bb<\/em>, a-t-il rappel\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00abL’adh\u00e9sion de l’Union renforcerait la cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 d’un programme de r\u00e9forme \u00e9conomique et augmenterait consid\u00e9rablement la probabilit\u00e9 d’un accord de financement avec le FMI\u00bb<\/em>, a expliqu\u00e9 Fitch, ajoutant que \u00able pr\u00e9sident Kais Saied reste populaire, mais adopter des r\u00e9formes politiques et \u00e9conomiques sans le soutien de l’UGTT serait difficile.\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

L’agence pense que l’UGTT conditionnera son soutien aux r\u00e9formes \u00e9conomiques \u00e0 la pr\u00e9servation de son r\u00f4le politique influent dans le cadre du nouvel ordre institutionnel. N\u00e9anmoins, il existe un risque que les r\u00e9formes ne soient pas convenues \u00e0 temps pour garantir un programme du FMI avant que les tensions sur les liquidit\u00e9s externes ne s’aggravent, m\u00eame si l’UGTT finit par les soutenir, estime Fitch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u00e9ficit courant de 8,4% du PIB en 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

L’agence a rappel\u00e9 qu’\u00abune commission constitutionnelle a \u00e9galement \u00e9t\u00e9 mise en place pour faire avancer les r\u00e9formes, et un r\u00e9f\u00e9rendum sur une nouvelle constitution devrait avoir lieu en juillet, avec des \u00e9lections l\u00e9gislatives fin 2022\u00bb<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les d\u00e9caissements r\u00e9cents, de la Banque mondiale, de l’Union europ\u00e9enne et d’Afreximbank, ont att\u00e9nu\u00e9 l’impact \u00e0 court terme sur la position ext\u00e9rieure de la Tunisie des sorties plus fortes du compte courant caus\u00e9es par la hausse des prix mondiaux des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res, telles que le p\u00e9trole et le bl\u00e9, en raison de la guerre en Ukraine. \u00abNous pr\u00e9voyons que le pays affichera un d\u00e9ficit du compte courant de 8,4 % du PIB en 2022 (contre 6,3 % en 2021)\u00bb<\/em>, souligne Fitch, en ajoutant que la hausse des prix \u00e0 l’importation a \u00e9galement aggrav\u00e9 les pressions inflationnistes et alourdi la facture des subventions du gouvernement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00abEn cons\u00e9quence, nous pr\u00e9voyons que le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire se creusera \u00e0 8,5% du PIB en 2022, contre 7,8% en 2021. La banque centrale a relev\u00e9 son taux directeur de 75 points de base en mai \u00e0 7%, ce qui pourrait contribuer \u00e0 refroidir la demande, mais il est peu probable que la Tunisie attire beaucoup d’investissements priv\u00e9s internationaux, compte tenu des d\u00e9fis \u00e9conomiques auxquels le pays est confront\u00e9\u00bb<\/em>, avertit encore l’agence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Peut-on encore sauver la Tunisie d’une banqueroute annonc\u00e9e<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Fitch avait abaiss\u00e9 la note de la Tunisie \u00e0 \u00abCCC \u00bb de \u00abB-\u00bb en mars 2022, en raison de risques accrus de liquidit\u00e9 budg\u00e9taire et externe apr\u00e8s de nouveaux retards dans la conclusion d’un nouvel accord avec le FMI \u00e0 la suite de changements politiques en juillet 2021 qui ont vu le pr\u00e9sident suspendre le parlement et r\u00e9voquer le Premier ministre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00abEn l’absence d’un accord avec le FMI, qui est n\u00e9cessaire pour acc\u00e9der \u00e0 l’aide budg\u00e9taire de la plupart des cr\u00e9anciers publics, nous nous attendrions \u00e0 ce que les r\u00e9serves internationales de la Tunisie s’\u00e9rodent progressivement (de 8,4 milliards de dollars \u00e0 fin avril 2022) et que le dinar se d\u00e9pr\u00e9cie\u00bb<\/em>, conclue Fitch, dont l’avertissement risque de tomber dans des oreilles de sourds, car ni le pr\u00e9sident Sa\u00efed ni le secr\u00e9taire g\u00e9n\u00e9ral de l’UGTT, Noureddine Taboubi, ne semble dispos\u00e9s \u00e0 trouver un modus vivendi pour sauver le pays d’une banqueroute annonc\u00e9e.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fitch Ratings estime que le gouvernement tunisien et l’influente UGTT pourraient forger un consensus sur des r\u00e9formes \u00e9conomiques qui pourraient d\u00e9bloquer le financement du FMI. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":1116219,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[995,2433],"tags":[17785,130,95455,81510,6777,388,76012,21897,62643,936,937],"class_list":["post-1115917","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economie","category-tunisie","tag-afreximbank","tag-banque-mondiale","tag-club-de-paris","tag-fitch","tag-fitch-ratings","tag-fmi","tag-kais-saied-2","tag-noureddine-taboubi","tag-tunisie","tag-ugtt","tag-union-europeenne"],"yoast_head":"\nFitch Ratings\u00a0: \u00abLes r\u00e9serves internationales de la Tunisie s'\u00e9rodent\u00bb - Kapitalis<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/2022\/05\/31\/fitch-ratings-les-reserves-internationales-de-la-tunisie-serodent\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fitch Ratings\u00a0: \u00abLes r\u00e9serves internationales de la Tunisie s'\u00e9rodent\u00bb - 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