{"id":11671332,"date":"2024-02-20T12:43:00","date_gmt":"2024-02-20T11:43:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/?p=11671332"},"modified":"2024-02-20T12:43:01","modified_gmt":"2024-02-20T11:43:01","slug":"pbr-rating-prevoit-la-poursuite-de-la-resilience-economique-en-tunisie","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/2024\/02\/20\/pbr-rating-prevoit-la-poursuite-de-la-resilience-economique-en-tunisie\/","title":{"rendered":"PBR Rating pr\u00e9voit la poursuite de la r\u00e9silience \u00e9conomique en Tunisie"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

L\u2019agence de notation PBR Rating a pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 ses projections macro\u00e9conomiques et sectorielles pour l\u2019exercice 2024 au profit des acteurs \u00e9conomiques et financiers.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

En pr\u00e9sence des repr\u00e9sentants des institutions financi\u00e8res, PBR Rating a d\u00e9voil\u00e9 la derni\u00e8re version de son \u00e9tude trimestrielle portant sur l\u2019analyse des risques macro\u00e9conomiques et sectoriels en Tunisie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ce rapport, r\u00e9alis\u00e9 en collaboration avec le Conseil Bancaire et Financier (CMF), est fond\u00e9 sur une double m\u00e9thodologie, \u00e9conomique et \u00e9conom\u00e9trique. Il vise \u00e0 sensibiliser les \u00e9tablissements financiers aux risques et opportunit\u00e9s de financement li\u00e9s aux principales activit\u00e9s \u00e9conomiques. Il convient de souligner que l\u2019objectif du programme est de renforcer le financement des entreprises tunisiennes en mati\u00e8re d\u2019investissement et de cycle d\u2019exploitation pour soutenir les efforts de d\u00e9veloppement \u00e9conomique national.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le bilan macro\u00e9conomique tunisien de l\u2019exercice 2023 a permis de valider les constats pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s lors des derniers travaux de mod\u00e9lisation et de confirmer les leviers de croissance sectorielle du pays.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All\u00e8gement du d\u00e9ficit global<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Les d\u00e9fis macro\u00e9conomiques en Tunisie, tels que l\u2019inflation mesur\u00e9e \u00e0 9,3 % en 2023 (en moyenne annuelle, apr\u00e8s un taux moyen de 8,3% en 2022 et un pic de 10,4% sur le mois de f\u00e9vrier 2023) et le d\u00e9ficit commercial estim\u00e9 \u00e0 17,069 milliards de dinars en 2023 (contre 25,231 milliards de dinars en 2022), ont \u00e9t\u00e9 globalement plus maitris\u00e9s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En glissement annuel, l\u2019\u00e9conomie tunisienne a b\u00e9n\u00e9fici\u00e9 d\u2019une stabilit\u00e9 (et de certaines baisses) de prix sur les march\u00e9s internationaux en 2023 ainsi que d\u2019une politique d\u2019approvisionnement \u00e9tatique plus resserr\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La balance courante a \u00e9galement affich\u00e9 un meilleur r\u00e9sultat en 2023 (-4,058 milliards de dinars soit 2,6% du PIB, contre -12,451 milliards de dinars soit 8,7% du PIB en 2022), gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 une meilleure ma\u00eetrise de la balance commerciale et aux revenus des Tunisiens r\u00e9sidents \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9tranger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le secteur touristique a \u00e9galement contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019all\u00e9gement du d\u00e9ficit global avec la poursuite de la consolidation des revenus ext\u00e9rieurs du secteur en 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En 2024, la r\u00e9silience du tissu \u00e9conomique tunisien devra se maintenir malgr\u00e9 une tendance \u00e0 la baisse g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9e des marges, une diminution de l\u2019\u00e9pargne, une gestion tendue de la tr\u00e9sorerie et une renonciation \u00e0 maintenir les niveaux de stocks minimums.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Certaines cha\u00eenes de valeur pourraient confirmer leurs orientations vers des activit\u00e9s d\u2019interm\u00e9diation et de commerce de produits import\u00e9s plut\u00f4t que vers des activit\u00e9s de production et d\u2019industrialisation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le secteur financier sera de plus en plus sollicit\u00e9 pour le financement des besoins d\u2019exploitation et de l\u2019approvisionnement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pression sur les finances publiques<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Cependant, sur l\u2019exercice courant, la pression sur les finances publiques reste un important point de vigilance pour la cartographie des risques tunisiens. L\u2019Etat central pr\u00e9voit un besoin de financement additionnel (hors ressources budg\u00e9taires) en 2024 de 27 milliards de dinars (dont 16 milliards de dinars d\u2019endettement ext\u00e9rieur).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le paiement des \u00e9ch\u00e9ances nationales repr\u00e9sente un \u00e9l\u00e9ment clef de la gestion des finances publiques avec notamment deux p\u00e9riodes difficiles, en f\u00e9vrier et en octobre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Malgr\u00e9 la conjoncture difficile, PBR Rating \u00e9carte tout risque de d\u00e9faut tunisien sur l\u2019exercice 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toutefois, des mesures budg\u00e9taires encore plus restrictives (notamment en mati\u00e8re de devises \u00e9trang\u00e8res) peuvent \u00eatre prises en cas de difficult\u00e9s majeures de mobilisation de ressources externes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A l\u2019instar de l\u2019exercice 2022, toute carence de mobilisation de ces moyens, risque d\u2019entra\u00eener un resserrement des budgets d\u2019investissement, de subvention et de paiement de certains fournisseurs, impactant n\u00e9gativement la dynamique de croissance (sur les volets investissement et consommation).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En mati\u00e8re sectorielle, l\u2019analyse PBR Rating a pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 des fragilit\u00e9s latentes dans un certain nombre de domaines \u00e9conomiques, \u00e0 l\u2019instar de l\u2019agriculture (et de l\u2019activit\u00e9 agroalimentaire) et des branches industrielles non manufacturi\u00e8res. Cependant, les \u00e9quipes de PBR Rating mettent en lumi\u00e8re des opportunit\u00e9s importantes pour l’\u00e9conomie tunisienne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les industries manufacturi\u00e8res, notamment textiles, m\u00e9caniques et \u00e9lectroniques, offrent un potentiel significatif de cr\u00e9ation de valeur et d’emplois, s’inscrivant dans les nouvelles orientations mondiales en mati\u00e8re de relocalisation, de d\u00e9veloppement technologique et de comp\u00e9titivit\u00e9 hors co\u00fbt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Des opportunit\u00e9s se profilent \u00e9galement dans les secteurs du recyclage et de la valorisation des d\u00e9chets, de la production d’\u00e9nergies renouvelables et de la transformation chimique, mais ces secteurs n\u00e9cessitent une adaptation strat\u00e9gique de leurs cadres r\u00e9glementaires (administratif et juridique) afin de permettre la r\u00e9alisation de leurs potentialit\u00e9s, notamment en mati\u00e8re d\u2019exportations. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Communiqu\u00e9.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Les d\u00e9fis macro\u00e9conomiques en Tunisie sont globalement plus maitris\u00e9s.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":11671415,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[995,2433],"tags":[114065,99790,303,475,478,494,64927,113168],"class_list":["post-11671332","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economie","category-tunisie","tag-balance-courante","tag-conseil-bancaire-et-financier","tag-economie-tunisienne","tag-industrie","tag-inflation","tag-investissement","tag-pbr-rating","tag-resilience"],"yoast_head":"\nPBR Rating pr\u00e9voit la poursuite de la r\u00e9silience \u00e9conomique en Tunisie - Kapitalis<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/2024\/02\/20\/pbr-rating-prevoit-la-poursuite-de-la-resilience-economique-en-tunisie\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"PBR Rating pr\u00e9voit la poursuite de la r\u00e9silience \u00e9conomique en Tunisie - 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