{"id":12462107,"date":"2024-04-14T11:17:10","date_gmt":"2024-04-14T10:17:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/?p=12462107"},"modified":"2024-04-14T11:17:11","modified_gmt":"2024-04-14T10:17:11","slug":"tunisie-les-emprunts-directs-aupres-de-la-bct-ne-creent-pas-de-monnaie-locale-mac-sa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/2024\/04\/14\/tunisie-les-emprunts-directs-aupres-de-la-bct-ne-creent-pas-de-monnaie-locale-mac-sa\/","title":{"rendered":"Tunisie : les emprunts directs aupr\u00e8s de la BCT ne cr\u00e9ent pas de monnaie locale (Mac SA)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Le recours aux emprunts directs aupr\u00e8s de la Banque centrale de Tunisie (BCT) pour r\u00e9pondre aux besoins du budget de l\u2019Etat n\u2019a pas abouti directement \u00e0 la cr\u00e9ation mon\u00e9taire puisque ces montants \u00e9taient d\u00e9duits des r\u00e9serves de devises pour rembourser la dette ext\u00e9rieure.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

C\u2019est ce qu\u2019indique l\u2019interm\u00e9diaire boursier Mac SA dans sa Note de conjoncture \u00e9conomique<\/a> en Tunisie, publi\u00e9e le 12 avril 2024, s’inscrivant ainsi en faux contre ceux qui ont accus\u00e9 la BCT de recourir massivement \u00e0 la planche \u00e0 billets pour financer les besoins budg\u00e9taires de l’Etat via les emprunts obligataires sur le march\u00e9 int\u00e9rieur. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire du pays devrait atteindre 10,6 milliards de dinars tunisiens (MMDT). Cela repr\u00e9sente un remboursement du principal de 17,9 MMDT (8,1 MMDT de pr\u00eats int\u00e9rieurs et 9,8 MMDT de pr\u00eats ext\u00e9rieurs), ajoute la m\u00eame note.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ce montant, d\u2019un montant total de 28,5 MMDT, sera financ\u00e9, comme le pr\u00e9voit la Loi de Finances 2024, par des emprunts int\u00e9rieurs (11,7 MMDT) et des dettes ext\u00e9rieures (16,4 MMDT). Les 0,4 MMDT restants seront pris en charge par le Tr\u00e9sor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00abL\u2019Etat \u2013 face \u00e0 l\u2019impossibilit\u00e9 d\u2019obtenir des emprunts ext\u00e9rieurs au premier trimestre 2024- a eu recours \u00e0 des emprunts directs aupr\u00e8s de la BCT pour un montant total de 7 milliards de dinars\u00bb<\/em>, peut-on encore lire dans le document.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Environ la moiti\u00e9 des fonds vers\u00e9s n\u2019ont pas conduit \u00e0 une cr\u00e9ation mon\u00e9taire d\u00e9passant les besoins de l\u2019\u00e9conomie, car celle-ci a \u00e9t\u00e9 compens\u00e9e par une diminution des r\u00e9serves de change. La Banque centrale a fourni \u00e0 l\u2019Etat des fonds en devises et non en dinars tunisiens pour payer ses dettes ext\u00e9rieures, ce qui n\u2019a pratiquement aucun impact sur la cr\u00e9ation mon\u00e9taire nette.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u00e9c\u00e9l\u00e9ration de l\u2019inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Le taux d\u2019inflation, selon Mac SA, s\u2019est \u00e9tabli \u00e0 7,5% en f\u00e9vrier et mars 2024. Cette tendance \u00e0 la baisse se poursuivra pendant quelques mois, sur la base du niveau d\u2019avant la crise ukrainienne (2021), avant de retomber \u00e0 pr\u00e8s de 7% \u00e0 la fin de l’ann\u00e9e. Le taux d\u2019inflation moyen pour 2024 s\u2019\u00e9tablirait alors \u00e0 7,3% contre 9,3% en 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u2019inflation import\u00e9e reste importante compte tenu de la pression sur le taux de change li\u00e9e \u00e0 un dollar attendu plus fort, le taux directeur am\u00e9ricain \u00e9tant maintenu \u00e0 5,25%, et de la hausse des prix internationaux (p\u00e9trole, m\u00e9taux, sucre) m\u00eame si certains prix ont baiss\u00e9 (c\u00e9r\u00e9ales).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La composante locale de l\u2019inflation est \u00e9troitement li\u00e9e \u00e0 la raret\u00e9 de certaines mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res et au nombre croissant d\u2019interm\u00e9diaires commerciaux.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ce ralentissement de l\u2019inflation peut favoriser la stabilit\u00e9 du dinar et contribuer \u00e0 maintenir le pouvoir d\u2019achat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Croissance atone au premier trimestre 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Une croissance lente a \u00e9t\u00e9 signal\u00e9e au premier trimestre, a indiqu\u00e9 Mac SA. Ceci est d\u00e9favorable \u00e0 la cr\u00e9ation d\u2019emplois \u00e9tant donn\u00e9 le manque d\u2019investissements des secteurs public et priv\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les indicateurs du premier trimestre sugg\u00e8rent que l\u2019am\u00e9lioration du secteur agricole est compens\u00e9e par le d\u00e9clin de l\u2019industrie, ce qui donne lieu \u00e0 un taux de croissance relativement faible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La croissance du PIB au premier trimestre devrait osciller entre 0,5% et 1%, soit une l\u00e9g\u00e8re hausse par rapport \u00e0 l\u2019ann\u00e9e derni\u00e8re (0,4%) mais en-de\u00e7\u00e0 de l\u2019objectif fix\u00e9 pour 2024 (2 %).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La poursuite de la politique de contr\u00f4le des importations, la mobilisation de financements ext\u00e9rieurs ou d\u2019investissements directs \u00e9trangers \u00e0 des niveaux similaires \u00e0 ceux rapport\u00e9s ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es et la stabilit\u00e9 des prix internationaux aideraient la Tunisie \u00e0 respecter ses engagements financiers et commerciaux internationaux tout en affichant un niveau acceptable et l\u00e9g\u00e8re baisse des r\u00e9serves de change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cela pr\u00e9sente l\u2019avantage d\u2019\u00e9viter de r\u00e9\u00e9chelonner la dette ext\u00e9rieure afin que le pays reste cr\u00e9dible, comme il l\u2019a toujours \u00e9t\u00e9.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Le recours aux emprunts directs aupr\u00e8s de la BCT n\u2019a pas abouti directement \u00e0 la cr\u00e9ation mon\u00e9taire.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":4432652,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[995,2433],"tags":[93813,5949,18991,478,16400,78636,39271],"class_list":["post-12462107","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economie","category-tunisie","tag-creation-monetaire","tag-deficit-budgetaire","tag-dette-exterieure","tag-inflation","tag-mac-sa","tag-planche-a-billets","tag-reserves-de-devises"],"yoast_head":"\nTunisie : les emprunts directs aupr\u00e8s de la BCT ne cr\u00e9ent pas de monnaie locale (Mac SA) - Kapitalis<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/2024\/04\/14\/tunisie-les-emprunts-directs-aupres-de-la-bct-ne-creent-pas-de-monnaie-locale-mac-sa\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Tunisie : les emprunts directs aupr\u00e8s de la BCT ne cr\u00e9ent pas de monnaie locale (Mac SA) - 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