{"id":12781249,"date":"2024-05-11T11:32:51","date_gmt":"2024-05-11T10:32:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/?p=12781249"},"modified":"2024-05-11T11:32:52","modified_gmt":"2024-05-11T10:32:52","slug":"la-bm-prevoit-une-croissance-de-24-en-tunisie-en-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/2024\/05\/11\/la-bm-prevoit-une-croissance-de-24-en-tunisie-en-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"La BM pr\u00e9voit une croissance de 2,4% en Tunisie en 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Les pr\u00e9visions de croissance de la Tunisie pour 2024-2026 sont soumises \u00e0 d\u2019importants risques \u00e0 la baisse. Ces pr\u00e9visions seraient encore plus basses si le pays ne mettait pas en \u0153uvre des r\u00e9formes fiscales \u00abd\u00e9cisives\u00bb et \u00abfavorables \u00e0 la concurrence\u00bb et\/ou si les financements disponibles sont insuffisants pour couvrir ses besoins ext\u00e9rieurs, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 la Banque mondiale (BM).<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

La croissance devrait atteindre 2,4% en 2024 et 2,3% en 2025-2026, dans l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se d\u2019une mod\u00e9ration de la s\u00e9cheresse actuelle et de conditions de financement l\u00e9g\u00e8rement plus favorables, a indiqu\u00e9 la BM dans un rapport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Si ces r\u00e9formes ne se concr\u00e9tisent pas, il pourrait \u00eatre difficile de garantir suffisamment de devises pour l\u2019\u00e9conomie. Cela pourrait entra\u00eener des pressions sur les taux de change et les prix, avec des effets n\u00e9gatifs sur l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique et l\u2019emploi, indique la banque.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De plus, si la s\u00e9cheresse persiste, les projections pourraient \u00eatre r\u00e9vis\u00e9es \u00e0 la baisse, compte tenu de l\u2019impact n\u00e9gatif sur l\u2019agriculture et la balance commerciale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Concernant les finances publiques et la balance ext\u00e9rieure de la Tunisie, \u00abelles resteront fragiles en l\u2019absence de financement ext\u00e9rieur suffisant\u00bb<\/em>, note l’institution financi\u00e8re internationale, ajoutant que \u00able d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire devrait se r\u00e9duire quelque peu, pour atteindre 6,1% du PIB en 2024\u00bb<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Selon la banque, cela est principalement d\u00fb \u00e0 une baisse des subventions et de la masse salariale en termes r\u00e9els, ainsi qu\u2019\u00e0 une augmentation mod\u00e9r\u00e9e des recettes fiscales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quant au d\u00e9ficit du compte courant, \u00abil devrait rester stable \u00e0 2,4% du PIB en 2024, avec une croissance continue des exportations de voyages et des termes de l\u2019\u00e9change stables\u00bb<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les emprunts \u00e9trangers devraient continuer \u00e0 financer le d\u00e9ficit du compte courant, avec des investissements directs \u00e9trangers stables et des investissements de portefeuille tr\u00e8s faibles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pour la BM, financer les d\u00e9ficits n\u00e9cessitera une augmentation significative des financements ext\u00e9rieurs, compte tenu du calendrier \u00ablourd\u00bb<\/em> de remboursement de la dette ext\u00e9rieure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Acc\u00e8s limit\u00e9 aux march\u00e9s de capitaux \u00e9trangers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Malgr\u00e9 la r\u00e9duction des d\u00e9ficits, les besoins bruts de financement devraient encore augmenter, \u00e0 16,1% du PIB en 2024 (contre 13,8% en 2023), en raison d\u2019un service important de la dette ext\u00e9rieure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En fait, pr\u00e8s des deux tiers du financement devraient \u00eatre des amortissements. \u00abCela accro\u00eet \u00e9galement la d\u00e9pendance de la Tunisie \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard des sources de financement ext\u00e9rieures, qui devraient repr\u00e9senter environ 57% du financement total\u00bb<\/em>, indique le rapport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00abAvec des IDE stables et des investissements de portefeuille minimes, les emprunts publics devraient continuer \u00e0 couvrir les besoins de financement ext\u00e9rieur\u00bb<\/em>, tandis que \u00abla Tunisie a encore une capacit\u00e9 limit\u00e9e \u00e0 exploiter les march\u00e9s de capitaux \u00e9trangers\u00bb<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Si le rythme des r\u00e9formes et le niveau de financement sont ad\u00e9quats, la BM pr\u00e9voit une croissance soutenue \u00e0 moyen terme et une certaine stabilisation des d\u00e9s\u00e9quilibres macro\u00e9conomiques et budg\u00e9taires. Toutefois, ces perspectives \u00e0 moyen terme d\u00e9pendent de la poursuite d\u2019un rythme de r\u00e9forme ambitieux, d\u2019un financement suffisant et de prix internationaux stables de l\u2019\u00e9nergie, en particulier du p\u00e9trole.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sans r\u00e9formes fiscales d\u00e9cisives
\n et favorables \u00e0 la concurrence, les pr\u00e9visions de croissance de la Tunisie devraient baisser en 2024 et 2025. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":10419235,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[995,2433],"tags":[130,249,5949,100044,115567,97174,62643],"class_list":["post-12781249","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economie","category-tunisie","tag-banque-mondiale","tag-croissance","tag-deficit-budgetaire","tag-deficit-du-compte-courant","tag-emprunts-etrangers","tag-reformes-fiscales","tag-tunisie"],"yoast_head":"\nLa BM pr\u00e9voit une croissance de 2,4% en Tunisie en 2024 - Kapitalis<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/2024\/05\/11\/la-bm-prevoit-une-croissance-de-24-en-tunisie-en-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"La BM pr\u00e9voit une croissance de 2,4% en Tunisie en 2024 - 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