{"id":14632961,"date":"2024-11-16T12:10:49","date_gmt":"2024-11-16T11:10:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/?p=14632961"},"modified":"2024-11-16T13:15:57","modified_gmt":"2024-11-16T12:15:57","slug":"le-dinar-tunisien-sechangera-a-27-dollars-des-2026-selon-fitch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/2024\/11\/16\/le-dinar-tunisien-sechangera-a-27-dollars-des-2026-selon-fitch\/","title":{"rendered":"Le dinar tunisien s\u2019\u00e9changera \u00e0 un taux de 2,7 face au dollar d\u00e8s 2026, selon Fitch"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Il y a une semaine, Fitch-Solutions a publi\u00e9 un volumineux rapport (74 pages en anglais) sur l\u2019\u00e9conomie tunisienne, le pr\u00e9sent et le futur, jusqu\u2019au 2033. Ce rapport intitul\u00e9 \u00abTunisia, Country Risk Report, Q1 2025\u00bb <\/a>annonce une sensible remont\u00e9e de la valeur du dinar tunisien face au dollar am\u00e9ricain (1$= 2,79 DT) et une l\u00e9g\u00e8re baisse du taux directeur en 2025, si l\u2019inflation passait en dessous de 6%. Entre autres nouvelles\u2026<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moktar Lamari *<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

On reprend l\u2019essentiel des constats et projections en 14 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1- Le rapport pr\u00e9voit constate un rebond du secteur agricole<\/strong> et de l\u2019activit\u00e9 touristique qui feront remonter le taux de croissance du PIB r\u00e9el de la Tunisie de 0,6 % en glissement annuel \u00e0 presque 2% pour 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2- Les auteurs pensent que la croissance ralentira ensuite \u00e0 1,0 % en 2025<\/strong>, en raison notamment des hausses d\u2019imp\u00f4ts qui affaibliront encore le pouvoir d\u2019achat des m\u00e9nages et d\u00e9courageront l\u2019investissement, amplifiant ainsi l\u2019impact n\u00e9gatif des probl\u00e8mes structurels budg\u00e9taires et externes actuels sur l\u2019\u00e9conomie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3- La r\u00e9duction du d\u00e9ficit commercial <\/strong>\u00e9nerg\u00e9tique entra\u00eenera une r\u00e9duction de l\u2019exc\u00e9dent de la balance courante de la Tunisie, qui passera de 2,2% du PIB en 2023 \u00e0 1,3% du PIB en 2024 et \u00e0 0,7% du PIB en 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4- La r\u00e9duction du d\u00e9ficit courant<\/strong>, le soutien ext\u00e9rieur provenant principalement de l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne (UE) et de solides r\u00e9serves de change permettront aux autorit\u00e9s de faire face \u00e0 leurs obligations de change de plus de 2,0 milliards de dollars en 2025. N\u00e9anmoins, la position ext\u00e9rieure reste extr\u00eamement vuln\u00e9rable aux chocs ext\u00e9rieurs, tels que la hausse des prix mondiaux des produits de base.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5- Le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire<\/strong> de la Tunisie se r\u00e9duira \u00e9galement progressivement, passant de 7,2% du PIB en 2023 \u00e0 5,7% du PIB en 2025, en raison de l\u2019augmentation des recettes fiscales et de la baisse des d\u00e9penses en subventions. Le ratio dette\/PIB passera \u00e0 82,9% du PIB \u00e0 la fin de 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

6- Les auteurs anticipent que le dinar gagnera des points face au dollar <\/strong>am\u00e9ricain, si rien ne change dans les tendances de reprise des secteurs \u00e9conomiques et de l\u2019investissement. La pression d\u00e9pr\u00e9ciative sur le dinar augmentera au d\u00e9but de 2025 car 1,0 milliard de dollars de paiements en devises sont dus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

7- La Banque centrale de Tunisie (BCT) maintiendra le taux directeur \u00e0 8,00%<\/strong> jusqu\u2019\u00e0 la fin de 2025, car l\u2019inflation ne ralentira que l\u00e9g\u00e8rement, passant de 6,5% en glissement annuel en d\u00e9cembre 2024 \u00e0 6,0% en glissement annuel en d\u00e9cembre 2025. Le taux directeur sera l\u00e9g\u00e8rement ajust\u00e9 d\u00e8s que l\u2019inflation passe sous la barre de 6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

8- Sur le plan politique, les auteurs du rapport pensent que le rejet persistant des r\u00e9formes douloureuses<\/strong>, le recours accru aux financements nationaux et les hausses d\u2019imp\u00f4ts risquent de d\u00e9t\u00e9riorer davantage les conditions socio-\u00e9conomiques. Cela maintiendra ainsi le risque de manifestations et tensions sociales, durant 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

9- L\u2019incapacit\u00e9 des autorit\u00e9s \u00e0 mobiliser les fonds n\u00e9cessaires pourrait peser davantage sur la position ext\u00e9rieure de la Tunisie<\/strong>, le dinar et la croissance \u00e9conomique. Les investissements fixes resteront tributaires du maintien d\u2019un environnement s\u00e9curitaire stable et de la r\u00e9duction des actions syndicales locales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

10- La d\u00e9pendance r\u00e9currente \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de la Banque centrale<\/strong> pour financer le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire et faire face aux paiements de la dette ext\u00e9rieure risque de d\u00e9stabiliser la situation macro\u00e9conomique. Des conditions m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques d\u00e9favorables persistantes p\u00e8seraient sur la production agricole.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

11- Une nouvelle augmentation de l\u2019inflation<\/strong> et des p\u00e9nuries plus prononc\u00e9es de produits de base, en particulier le pain, pourraient alimenter le m\u00e9contentement social. Une augmentation soutenue du ch\u00f4mage dans un contexte de croissance \u00e9conomique atone pourrait entra\u00eener des protestations et m\u00e9contentements d\u00e9non\u00e7ant la chert\u00e9 de la vie et des produits de base.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

12- Les risques qui p\u00e8sent<\/strong> sur ces pr\u00e9visions sont \u00e0 la hausse. Si la Banque centrale de Tunisie d\u00e9cidait d\u2019assouplir sa politique mon\u00e9taire en raison d\u2019une baisse plus forte que pr\u00e9vu de l\u2019inflation (et\/ou de pressions politiques), cela am\u00e9liorerait la demande de cr\u00e9dit et, par extension, l\u2019activit\u00e9 d\u2019investissement. La part de l\u2019investissement dans le PIB peine \u00e0 d\u00e9passer 15%, contre 26% en 2011.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

13- Un soutien ou un investissement \u00e9tranger<\/strong> plus important entra\u00eenerait une croissance \u00e9conomique sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 1,0 % en 2025. D\u2019autre part, un pic de pression ext\u00e9rieure d\u00fb \u00e0 une flamb\u00e9e des prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie en cas d\u2019escalade brutale des tensions g\u00e9opolitiques, p\u00e8serait sur le dinar, alimenterait l\u2019inflation et freinerait l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

14- La masse mon\u00e9taire (M2) va continuer \u00e0 cro\u00eetre<\/strong>, en moyenne de 8% par an, d\u2019ici 2033. Selon les projections de Fitch, le dinar s\u2019\u00e9changera en dessous de 2,8 dollars am\u00e9ricains d\u00e8s 2026. Une note d\u2019espoir, une perspective qu\u2019il faut valoriser pour rompre avec la d\u00e9prime qui envahit l\u2019opinion dominante chez les \u00e9conomistes de la place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Blog de l\u2019auteur<\/strong> : Economics for Tunisia<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fitch Solutions annonce une remont\u00e9e de la valeur du dinar tunisien (2,79 dollars) et une l\u00e9g\u00e8re baisse du taux directeur en 2025. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":13878209,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[992,995,2433],"tags":[13605,118945,478,68595,880],"class_list":["post-14632961","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-a-la-une","category-economie","category-tunisie","tag-dinar-tunisien","tag-fitch-solutions-2","tag-inflation","tag-moktar-lamari","tag-taux-directeur"],"yoast_head":"\nLe dinar tunisien s\u2019\u00e9changera \u00e0 un taux de 2,7 face au dollar d\u00e8s 2026, selon Fitch - Kapitalis<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/2024\/11\/16\/le-dinar-tunisien-sechangera-a-27-dollars-des-2026-selon-fitch\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Le dinar tunisien s\u2019\u00e9changera \u00e0 un taux de 2,7 face au dollar d\u00e8s 2026, selon Fitch - 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