{"id":15848698,"date":"2025-03-10T10:38:18","date_gmt":"2025-03-10T09:38:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/?p=15848698"},"modified":"2025-03-10T10:38:20","modified_gmt":"2025-03-10T09:38:20","slug":"du-rififi-a-teheran-lestablishment-iranien-se-dechire","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/2025\/03\/10\/du-rififi-a-teheran-lestablishment-iranien-se-dechire\/","title":{"rendered":"Du rififi \u00e0 T\u00e9h\u00e9ran | L\u2019establishment iranien se d\u00e9chire!"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Rien ne va plus \u00e0 T\u00e9h\u00e9ran. Apr\u00e8s l\u2019annus horribilis 2024 qui a vu le Hezbollah libanais sortir \u00e9puis\u00e9 et son \u00e9tat-major politique et militaire d\u00e9capit\u00e9 suite \u00e0 la guerre sanglante l\u2019ayant oppos\u00e9 \u00e0 Isra\u00ebl, puis la chute vertigineuse de Bachar Al-Assad en Syrie, la situation semble devenir plus pr\u00e9caire que jamais au c\u0153ur m\u00eame du r\u00e9gime.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Imed Bahri<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

Le pr\u00e9sident r\u00e9formateur Masoud Pazeshkian ayant re\u00e7u pour son \u00e9lection le soutien du Guide Ali Khamenei vient d\u2019\u00eatre l\u00e2ch\u00e9 par ce dernier qui semble pencher pour les faucons du camp conservateur, \u00e0 l\u2019heure o\u00f9, \u00e0 Washington, d\u2019autres faucons ont pris le pouvoir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pazeshkian est toujours favorable \u00e0 des n\u00e9gociations avec Washington, contrairement aux conservateurs qui refusent de n\u00e9gocier avec le couteau de Trump sous la gorge et qui sont convaincus que la nouvelle administration am\u00e9ricaine a pour objectif de provoquer un changement de r\u00e9gime en Iran. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tout en rappelant que la proposition de Trump de rouvrir les n\u00e9gociations avec T\u00e9h\u00e9ran sur le programme nucl\u00e9aire iranien intervient dans un contexte de conflits internes qui secouent les plus hautes sph\u00e8res de l\u2019establishment de la R\u00e9publique islamique, Patrick Wintour, r\u00e9dacteur en chef diplomatique du journal britannique The Observer<\/a>, version du week-end du Guardian<\/em>, a ajout\u00e9 que, le mois dernier, le parlement iranien domin\u00e9 par les conservateurs a affirm\u00e9 son autorit\u00e9 sur le pr\u00e9sident r\u00e9formiste Masoud Pezeshkian, \u00e9lu en juin, en limogeant le ministre de l\u2019Economie Abdolnasser Hemmati, tandis que Mohammad Javad Zarif, vice-pr\u00e9sident et r\u00e9formateur le plus en vue, a \u00e9galement \u00e9t\u00e9 contraint de d\u00e9missionner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La derni\u00e8re lutte pour le pouvoir s\u2019est clairement d\u00e9roul\u00e9e contre la volont\u00e9 du pr\u00e9sident Pezeshkian mais avec une \u00e9conomie sous le choc des sanctions am\u00e9ricaines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le gouvernement de l\u2019ombre reprend la main<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Le guide supr\u00eame de 85 ans a apparemment d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de ne pas soutenir Pezeshkian. Sentant que la situation s\u2019aggravait, le Parlement a convoqu\u00e9 11 ministres et leur a pos\u00e9 49 questions sur leurs performances dans ce qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 per\u00e7u comme une tentative de harceler Pezeshkian et son gouvernement et de le forcer \u00e0 se soumettre davantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Des rumeurs circulent en Iran selon lesquelles Pezeshkian, un homme \u00e9motif qui accorde une grande importance \u00e0 l\u2019int\u00e9grit\u00e9, serait sur le point de d\u00e9missionner. Son d\u00e9part confirmerait que l\u2019\u00c9tat profond, ou ce que certains en Iran appellent le gouvernement de l\u2019ombre, ne tol\u00e9rera pas une perte de pouvoir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u2019il part, il a clairement fait savoir \u00e0 qui il imputerait la responsabilit\u00e9. Dans un discours remarquablement franc, il a finalement pris position d\u00e9clarant qu\u2019il \u00e9tait favorable \u00e0 des n\u00e9gociations avec l\u2019Occident mais que le Guide supr\u00eame les avait rejet\u00e9es. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00abMa position a toujours \u00e9t\u00e9 et restera que je crois aux n\u00e9gociations mais nous devons d\u00e9sormais suivre les param\u00e8tres fix\u00e9s par le Guide supr\u00eame\u00bb<\/em>, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 Pezeshkian avant d\u2019ajouter: \u00abLorsque le Guide supr\u00eame fixe une direction, nous devons nous y adapter et pour nous adapter, nous devons essayer de trouver une solution. Depuis que nous avons pris le pouvoir, nous avons des probl\u00e8mes d\u2019\u00e9nergie, d\u2019eau, d\u2019\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, d\u2019\u00e9normes dettes et des probl\u00e8mes de paiement aussi bien dans le secteur agricole pour le bl\u00e9 que dans celui de la sant\u00e9 pour les soins m\u00e9dicaux mais aussi les retraites, etc.\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le bras-de-fer s\u2019\u00e9tend aussi au plan soci\u00e9tal, puisqu\u2019il a \u00e9galement d\u00e9clar\u00e9 que ses efforts visant \u00e0 all\u00e9ger la pression exerc\u00e9e sur les femmes pour qu\u2019elles portent le voile se heurtaient \u00e0 une opposition constante.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sur un autre plan, Pezeshkian a pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 samedi de nouvelles excuses pour la p\u00e9nurie d\u2019\u00e9lectricit\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wintour estime que les nombreuses batailles qui tournent autour de l\u2019\u00e9conomie et de sa mauvaise gestion s\u2019inscrivent en r\u00e9alit\u00e9 dans des batailles plus vastes autour des relations avec l\u2019Occident. Les conservateurs \u00e9tant convaincus que l\u2019exp\u00e9rience montre que Trump et son alli\u00e9 Isra\u00ebl ne sont non seulement pas dignes de confiance mais \u00e9galement d\u00e9termin\u00e9s \u00e0 provoquer un changement de r\u00e9gime en Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pezeshkian avait affirm\u00e9 lors des \u00e9lections que l\u2019Iran pourrait mettre fin \u00e0 sa confrontation avec l\u2019Occident et rester ind\u00e9pendant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u00e9h\u00e9ran pourra-t-il rejeter les n\u00e9gociations propos\u00e9es par Trump ? <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Les conservateurs consid\u00e8rent que leur position est juste et plus justifi\u00e9e que jamais surtout apr\u00e8s la lettre de Trump \u00e0 l\u2019ayatollah Ali Khamenei, qui pose des conditions strictes aux n\u00e9gociations sur le programme nucl\u00e9aire. Le prix exig\u00e9 par Washington est consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme trop \u00e9lev\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cependant, si T\u00e9h\u00e9ran rejette l\u2019initiative de Trump, le bombardement isra\u00e9lien des sites nucl\u00e9aires iraniens deviendrait probable voire imminent. Le plus grand obstacle \u00e0 une telle attaque ne r\u00e9side pas dans les nombreuses menaces de repr\u00e9sailles de l\u2019Iran \u2013Isra\u00ebl pense avoir d\u00e9truit les d\u00e9fenses a\u00e9riennes de T\u00e9h\u00e9ran l\u2019automne dernier\u2013 mais dans les arguments des \u00c9tats du Golfe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le Premier ministre et ministre des Affaires \u00e9trang\u00e8res du Qatar Cheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani a accord\u00e9 une interview \u00e0 Tucker Carlson, qui a suscit\u00e9 beaucoup d\u2019inqui\u00e9tudes et dans laquelle il a averti que si la centrale nucl\u00e9aire iranienne de Bushehr \u00e9tait attaqu\u00e9e et que des mati\u00e8res radioactives s\u2019\u00e9chapperaient dans le Golfe, trois jours apr\u00e8s, aucun pays de la r\u00e9gion n\u2019aurait d\u2019eau potable, \u00e9tant donn\u00e9 que ces pays d\u00e9pendent tous du dessalement pour assurer leur approvisionnement en eau potable. Une telle attaque d\u00e9truirait non seulement la vie marine mais aussi la vie dans toute la r\u00e9gion, a ajout\u00e9 le ministre qatari.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pour l\u2019instant, les diplomates iraniens restent sur leur position affirmant qu\u2019ils ne n\u00e9gocieront pas directement avec l\u2019Am\u00e9rique. Cela laisse ouverte la possibilit\u00e9 de pourparlers indirects sous la m\u00e9diation de la Russie, une variante des laborieuses n\u00e9gociations qui ont eu lieu \u00e0 Vienne sous l\u2019administration Biden et qui n\u2019ont pas r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 relancer l\u2019accord nucl\u00e9aire de 2015. Cette offre pourrait faire gagner du temps \u00e0 l\u2019Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le consensus en Iran est que le message de Trump arrive \u00e0 point nomm\u00e9 dans le cadre d\u2019une guerre psychologique destin\u00e9e \u00e0 forcer T\u00e9h\u00e9ran \u00e0 le rejeter, \u00e0 approfondir les divisions iraniennes sur sa strat\u00e9gie et \u00e0 porter la crise entre l\u2019Occident et l\u2019Iran aux plus hauts niveaux.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cependant, en cas de refus de l\u2019offre de n\u00e9gociation am\u00e9ricaine par Khamenei, l\u2019option militaire serait \u00e0 l\u2019ordre du jour, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 Trump, sachant qu\u2019il a d\u00e9j\u00e0 lev\u00e9 tout obstacle \u00e0 la livraison \u00e0 Isra\u00ebl de bombes de 2 000 livres (900 kg) suspendue par son pr\u00e9d\u00e9cesseur et que Tel Aviv compte utiliser pour frapper les sites nucl\u00e9aires iraniens.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La situation semble devenir plus pr\u00e9caire que jamais au c\u0153ur m\u00eame du r\u00e9gime iranien o\u00f9 les r\u00e9formateurs et les conservateurs s’entred\u00e9chirent.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":15848756,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[992,997,2433],"tags":[121188,23431,5737,9054,75918,445,497,121187,119601,120312],"class_list":["post-15848698","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-a-la-une","category-politique","category-tunisie","tag-abdolnasser-hemmati","tag-ali-khamenei","tag-bachar-al-assad","tag-donald-trump","tag-etats-unis-2","tag-hezbollah","tag-iran","tag-masoud-pazeshkian","tag-mohammad-javad-zarif","tag-programme-nucleaire"],"yoast_head":"\nDu rififi \u00e0 T\u00e9h\u00e9ran | L\u2019establishment iranien se d\u00e9chire! - Kapitalis<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/2025\/03\/10\/du-rififi-a-teheran-lestablishment-iranien-se-dechire\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Du rififi \u00e0 T\u00e9h\u00e9ran | L\u2019establishment iranien se d\u00e9chire! 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