{"id":17460560,"date":"2025-09-13T11:18:40","date_gmt":"2025-09-13T10:18:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/?p=17460560"},"modified":"2025-09-13T11:20:07","modified_gmt":"2025-09-13T10:20:07","slug":"fitch-ratings-releve-la-note-de-la-tunisie-b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/2025\/09\/13\/fitch-ratings-releve-la-note-de-la-tunisie-b\/","title":{"rendered":"Fitch Ratings rel\u00e8ve la note de la Tunisie \u00e0 \u00abB-\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

L\u2019Agence de notation am\u00e9ricaine Fitch Ratings a\u00a0relev\u00e9 la note de d\u00e9faut \u00e9metteur (IDR) \u00e0 long terme, en devises et en monnaie locale, de la Tunisie \u00e0 \u00abB-\u00bb contre \u00abCCC+\u00bb auparavant, avec une perspective stable. Une am\u00e9lioration qui rassure sur le court terme, mais qui requiert davantage d\u2019effort en mati\u00e8re de r\u00e9formes structurelles et d\u2019assainissement des finances publiques. \u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

Dans un communiqu\u00e9, l\u2019agence souligne que cette r\u00e9vision \u00e0 la hausse refl\u00e8te l\u2019am\u00e9lioration continue de la position ext\u00e9rieure de la Tunisie, avec une baisse des d\u00e9ficits courants, la r\u00e9silience des investissements directs \u00e9trangers (IDE) nets et les d\u00e9caissements des partenaires multilat\u00e9raux et bilat\u00e9raux.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toutefois, rappelle encore l\u2019agence, les notations de la Tunisie sont limit\u00e9es par un acc\u00e8s encore restreint au financement ext\u00e9rieur en l\u2019absence d\u2019acc\u00e8s au march\u00e9 et par la forte vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9 du budget et des comptes ext\u00e9rieurs face aux chocs des prix des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res, en l\u2019absence d\u2019une r\u00e9forme des subventions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Il s\u2019agit \u00e9galement de la baisse du d\u00e9ficit courant, qui est pass\u00e9 de 1,5 % en 2024 \u00e0 2,2 % du PIB en 2025 et qui devrait atteindre 2,8 % en 2027, en raison de la baisse des prix de l\u2019huile d’olive et de la hausse des importations de biens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rebond des entr\u00e9es d\u2019IDE en 2025<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Ce chiffre reste toutefois bien inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 la moyenne de 7,9 % enregistr\u00e9e entre 2010 et 2022, gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 une am\u00e9lioration significative de la balance des services, qui est pass\u00e9e de 10 % du PIB en 2018 \u00e0 14 % du PIB en 2023 et 2024, et \u00e0 l\u2019augmentation des flux de transferts des fonds (de 4 % du PIB en 2018 \u00e0 6 % en 2023 et 2024).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u2019agissant du financement ext\u00e9rieur, Fitch Ratings a soulign\u00e9 que les entr\u00e9es nettes d\u2019IDE, qui ont repr\u00e9sent\u00e9 1,4 % du PIB en 2024, se sont r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9es r\u00e9silientes face aux chocs politiques et ext\u00e9rieurs (moyenne 2010-2019 : 2,1 % du PIB). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00abNous pr\u00e9voyons un rebond des entr\u00e9es d\u2019IDE en 2025 (1er<\/sup> semestre 2025 : +54 % en dollars am\u00e9ricains par rapport au 1er<\/sup> semestre 2024) et la poursuite des d\u00e9caissements des partenaires multilat\u00e9raux et bilat\u00e9raux jusqu\u2019en 2025-2027\u00bb<\/em>, indique Fitch ratings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De m\u00eame, l\u2019agence de notation pr\u00e9voit une r\u00e9duction des remboursements ext\u00e9rieurs. Ainsi, les flux nets de financement ext\u00e9rieur n\u00e9gatifs devraient passer d\u2019un niveau record de 3,7 % du PIB en 2024 \u00e0 1 % en 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besoins de financement budg\u00e9taire \u00e9lev\u00e9s<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fitch Ratings, estime que la Tunisie fait face \u00e0 des besoins de financement budg\u00e9taire \u00e9lev\u00e9s. \u00abLes besoins de financement budg\u00e9taire, hors refinancement de la dette \u00e0 court terme, passeront de 18 % du PIB en 2024 \u00e0 16 % en 2025, 15 % en 2026 et 13,5 % en 2027\u00bb<\/em>, souligne l’agence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Il s\u2019agit \u00e9galement de l’appui financier de la Banque centrale de Tunisie (BCT), avec des cr\u00e9dits \u00e0 taux z\u00e9ro accord\u00e9s par l\u2019Institut d\u2019\u00e9mission au gouvernement en 2024 (4,4 % du PIB) et 2025 (4,1 %), avec une \u00e9ch\u00e9ance de 10 ans et un d\u00e9lai de gr\u00e2ce de trois ans. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u2019agence de notation souligne \u00e9galement le renforcement du lien entre l\u2019\u00c9tat et les banques, dans la mesure o\u00f9 le secteur bancaire national pourrait contribuer \u00e0 r\u00e9pondre aux besoins de financement de l\u2019\u00c9tat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En plus d\u2019une baisse des d\u00e9ficits budg\u00e9taires, l\u2019Agence de notation pr\u00e9voit une ma\u00eetrise de la masse salariale en 2025. La dette publique devra rester \u00e9lev\u00e9e \u00e0 83 % du PIB en 2025 contre 84,5 % en 2024. Cette l\u00e9g\u00e8re baisse est principalement due \u00e0 la baisse du taux de change du dollar am\u00e9ricain par rapport au dinar tunisien.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

L’agence am\u00e9ricaine Fitch Ratings am\u00e9liore la note de d\u00e9faut \u00e9metteur de la Tunisie et la rel\u00e8ve de \u00abCCC+\u00bb \u00e0 \u00abB-\u00bb<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":1116219,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[995,2433],"tags":[124568,1057,2385,78752,776,62643],"class_list":["post-17460560","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economie","category-tunisie","tag-deficits-courants","tag-endettement","tag-finances-publiques","tag-fitch-rating","tag-reformes-structurelles","tag-tunisie"],"yoast_head":"\nFitch Ratings rel\u00e8ve la note de la Tunisie \u00e0 \u00abB-\u00bb - Kapitalis<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"L'agence am\u00e9ricaine Fitch Ratings am\u00e9liore la note de d\u00e9faut \u00e9metteur de la Tunisie et la rel\u00e8ve de \u00abCCC+\u00bb \u00e0 \u00abB-\u00bb\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/2025\/09\/13\/fitch-ratings-releve-la-note-de-la-tunisie-b\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fitch Ratings rel\u00e8ve la note de la Tunisie \u00e0 \u00abB-\u00bb - 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