{"id":18529839,"date":"2026-03-28T07:14:24","date_gmt":"2026-03-28T06:14:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/?p=18529839"},"modified":"2026-03-28T07:14:26","modified_gmt":"2026-03-28T06:14:26","slug":"ukraine-iran-quand-lordre-mondial-vacille","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/2026\/03\/28\/ukraine-iran-quand-lordre-mondial-vacille\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine \/ Iran\u00a0| Quand l\u2019ordre mondial vacille\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u00abNovus Ordo Seclorum\u00bb, la devise latine signifiant \u00abNouvel Ordre des Si\u00e8cles\u00bb, figurant au revers du Grand Sceau des \u00c9tats-Unis et sur le billet de 1 dollar, se fragilise. Le monde ne s\u2019effondre pas. Mais il n\u2019est plus certain de lui-m\u00eame. Et ne sait plus o\u00f9 il va. Et cette incertitude, d\u00e9sormais la chose au monde la mieux partag\u00e9e, par les riches comme par les pauvres, n\u2019est pas sans cons\u00e9quence sur les \u00e9quilibres g\u00e9opolitiques, l\u2019\u00e9conomie mais aussi l\u2019inconscient des peuples.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Manel Albouchi<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Pendant des d\u00e9cennies, un \u00e9quilibre s\u2019est impos\u00e9. Il reposait sur trois piliers : le p\u00e9trole, le dollar et la puissance militaire. Structur\u00e9 depuis la Bretton Woods et consolid\u00e9 par des institutions comme le Fonds mon\u00e9taire international (FMI), cet ordre mondial a permis de stabiliser les \u00e9changes, d\u2019organiser les alliances et de s\u00e9curiser les flux \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dans les ann\u00e9es 70, l\u2019arrimage du p\u00e9trole au dollar a renforc\u00e9 cette architecture. Le syst\u00e8me du p\u00e9trodollar a durablement li\u00e9 le triptyque. Et ce mod\u00e8le a tenu non seulement parce qu\u2019il \u00e9tait efficace, mais parce qu\u2019il \u00e9tait per\u00e7u comme fiable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le monde dans un entre-deux  <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Aujourd\u2019hui, nous ne sommes ni face \u00e0 un effondrement, ni dans une stabilit\u00e9 retrouv\u00e9e. Nous sommes dans ce que l\u2019on peut appeler un espace liminal : un moment de transition o\u00f9 les structures anciennes persistent, tandis que les nouvelles ne sont pas encore stabilis\u00e9es. Dans cet entre-deux, les rep\u00e8res deviennent flous :  les certitudes s\u2019\u00e9rodent, les \u00e9quilibres se tendent.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les crises r\u00e9centes en donnent une premi\u00e8re lecture. La guerre entre la Russie et l\u2019Ukraine a d\u00e9j\u00e0 profond\u00e9ment perturb\u00e9 les march\u00e9s \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques. Avec la guerre en Iran, la hausse des prix du gaz et du p\u00e9trole ne va pas cesser ce qui se r\u00e9percutera sur les prix du transport, des engrais, des c\u00e9r\u00e9ales et autres produits agricoles, entra\u00eenant des p\u00e9nuries alimentaires et une hausse de l\u2019inflation dans de nombreuses r\u00e9gions du monde. Mais ces ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes ne sont pas seulement \u00e9conomiques. Ils signalent une transformation plus profonde : le syst\u00e8me fonctionne encore, mais il ne produit plus le m\u00eame sentiment de s\u00e9curit\u00e9.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Un syst\u00e8me sous contrainte<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Ces \u00e9volutions peuvent \u00eatre \u00e9clair\u00e9es \u00e0 travers une grille simple : la pyramide de Maslow. Lorsque le besoin le plus fondamental (\u00abse nourrir\u00bb)<\/em> est affect\u00e9, ce n\u2019est pas seulement l\u2019\u00e9conomie qui vacille. C\u2019est l\u2019ensemble de la structure sociale qui est fragilis\u00e9e. Les tensions remontent ensuite dans le syst\u00e8me : ins\u00e9curit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique, instabilit\u00e9 sociale, polarisation politique\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Autrement dit, ce qui commence \u00e0 la base finit par affecter l\u2019ensemble de l\u2019ordre mondial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dans le m\u00eame temps, les \u00e9quilibres globaux \u00e9voluent. Des strat\u00e9gies de d\u00e9dollarisation \u00e9mergent, notamment dans le cadre des Brics. Des accords commerciaux en monnaies locales se d\u00e9veloppent. Les cha\u00eenes d\u2019approvisionnement se fragmentent sous l\u2019effet des rivalit\u00e9s et des sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le monde \u00e9volue vers une configuration plus multipolaire, o\u00f9 plusieurs centres de pouvoir coexistent sans qu\u2019un cadre unique ne s\u2019impose clairement. Ce mouvement ne marque pas la disparition de l\u2019ordre actuel, mais sa transformation progressive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u2019Iran : point de tension r\u00e9v\u00e9lateur<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Dans ce contexte, certains espaces concentrent les enjeux. L\u2019Iran en est un exemple central. Par sa position strat\u00e9gique (notamment autour du d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz) et par son r\u00f4le dans les \u00e9quilibres \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques, il se trouve au c\u0153ur des tensions r\u00e9gionales et internationales. Mais au-del\u00e0 de ces \u00e9l\u00e9ments, il joue aussi un r\u00f4le de r\u00e9v\u00e9lateur. Ce qui s\u2019y cristallise d\u00e9passe les int\u00e9r\u00eats nationaux : il s\u2019agit d\u2019une expression des tensions d\u2019un syst\u00e8me global en transition.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Une dimension reste souvent sous-estim\u00e9e dans l\u2019analyse g\u00e9opolitique : celle de l\u2019inconscient collectif. Un ordre mondial ne repose pas uniquement sur des institutions ou des rapports de force. Il repose aussi sur des repr\u00e9sentations partag\u00e9es : la croyance dans la stabilit\u00e9 d\u2019une monnaie, la confiance dans les alliances, l\u2019id\u00e9e que le syst\u00e8me est durable. Lorsque ces repr\u00e9sentations se fragilisent, m\u00eame sans rupture imm\u00e9diate, l\u2019ensemble devient plus instable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le syst\u00e8me international continue de fonctionner. Le dollar reste dominant. Les \u00e9changes se poursuivent. Mais quelque chose a chang\u00e9. Ce n\u2019est pas seulement l\u2019\u00e9quilibre des puissances. C\u2019est la mani\u00e8re dont cet \u00e9quilibre est per\u00e7u. Ce qui vacille aujourd\u2019hui, ce n\u2019est pas seulement un ordre mondial, c\u2019est la croyance qu\u2019il \u00e9tait immuable. Dans cet espace liminal, le monde ne dispara\u00eet pas. Il se red\u00e9finit. Et dans ces moments de transition, une chose devient d\u00e9cisive : la capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 lire non seulement les faits visibles, mais aussi les transformations invisibles qui traversent les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s et l\u2019inconscient collectif.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Avec la guerre d’Iran, Le monde \u00e9volue vers une configuration plus multipolaire, o\u00f9 plusieurs centres de pouvoir coexistent. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":18529957,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[992,997,1000,2433],"tags":[98633,118415,75918,497,112312,127400,709,6842],"class_list":["post-18529839","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-a-la-une","category-politique","category-tribune","category-tunisie","tag-brics","tag-dedollarisation","tag-etats-unis-2","tag-iran","tag-ordre-mondial","tag-petrodollar","tag-petrole","tag-ukraine"],"yoast_head":"\nUkraine \/ Iran\u00a0| Quand l\u2019ordre mondial vacille\u2026 - Kapitalis<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Avec la guerre d'Iran, Le monde \u00e9volue vers une configuration plus multipolaire, o\u00f9 plusieurs centres de pouvoir coexistent.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/2026\/03\/28\/ukraine-iran-quand-lordre-mondial-vacille\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ukraine \/ Iran\u00a0| Quand l\u2019ordre mondial vacille\u2026 - 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