{"id":294983,"date":"2020-04-19T16:43:22","date_gmt":"2020-04-19T15:43:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/?p=294983"},"modified":"2020-04-19T16:43:24","modified_gmt":"2020-04-19T15:43:24","slug":"proposition-danalyse-des-statistiques-du-covid-19-en-tunisie","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/2020\/04\/19\/proposition-danalyse-des-statistiques-du-covid-19-en-tunisie\/","title":{"rendered":"Proposition d\u2019analyse des statistiques du Covid-19 en Tunisie"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/Coronavirus-statistics.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-294985\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Afin de d\u00e9gager un indicateur pertinent sur la tendance de la contamination en Tunisie, il serait opportun de d\u00e9gager le ratio nombre des nouveaux contamin\u00e9s sur le total des personnes test\u00e9es par jour.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Par <strong>Abdellatif Toumi<\/strong> *<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/Abdellatif-Toumi.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-294984\"\/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Il est vrai que l\u2019\u00e9chantillon de la population test\u00e9e n\u2019est pas repr\u00e9sentatif mais il est p\u00e9nalisant, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire qu\u2019on aura un ratio surestim\u00e9 par rapport \u00e0 la totalit\u00e9 de la population tunisienne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ce ratio s\u2019est situ\u00e9 au mois de mars 2020 entre 0,06 et 0,19 ce qui est relativement \u00e9lev\u00e9, une baisse a \u00e9t\u00e9 constat\u00e9e \u00e0 partir du 2 avril puisqu\u2019il a atteint \u00e0 un certain moment 0,008, et depuis cette date, il s\u2019est situ\u00e9 entre 0,008 et 0,06 avec quelques exceptions pr\u00e8s et une moyenne de 0,045.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>M\u00eame cette p\u00e9riode n\u2019est pas homog\u00e8ne puisque depuis le 2 avril, on a observ\u00e9 deux tendances, celle du 2 au 10 avril o\u00f9 la tendance a \u00e9t\u00e9 vers la baisse avec une droite de pente n\u00e9gative (-0,3) ce qui est tr\u00e8s satisfaisant, mais \u00e0 partir du 11 avril la tendance est vers la croissance avec une droite de pente positive (+0,5) sans compter les r\u00e9sultats du 18 avril que je consid\u00e8re exceptionnels. Ce virage peut \u00eatre expliqu\u00e9 par ce qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 observ\u00e9 depuis pr\u00e8s de 2 semaines devant les bureaux de poste et dans les souks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dans le cas o\u00f9 l\u2019observation du 18 avril sera confirm\u00e9e durant les jours qui viennent on peut esp\u00e9rer la fin de ce malheur durant la premi\u00e8re quinzaine de mai, sinon on risque un redressement du virus et on se retrouvera dans une situation similaire \u00e0 celle du mois de mars, les mesures pr\u00e9ventives repr\u00e9sentant, pour l moment, l\u2019essentiel dans la lutte contre ce virus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>* Consultant en d\u00e9veloppement, mise \u00e0 niveau et s\u00e9curit\u00e9 industrielles.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Afin de d\u00e9gager un indicateur pertinent sur la tendance de la contamination en Tunisie, il serait opportun de d\u00e9gager le ratio nombre des nouveaux contamin\u00e9s sur le total des personnes test\u00e9es par jour. Par Abdellatif Toumi *<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":294984,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[992,998,1000,2433],"tags":[75291,4745],"class_list":["post-294983","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-a-la-une","category-societe","category-tribune","category-tunisie","tag-covid-19","tag-statistiques"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Proposition d\u2019analyse des statistiques du Covid-19 en Tunisie - Kapitalis<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/2020\/04\/19\/proposition-danalyse-des-statistiques-du-covid-19-en-tunisie\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Proposition d\u2019analyse des statistiques du Covid-19 en Tunisie - Kapitalis\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Afin de d\u00e9gager un indicateur pertinent sur la tendance de la contamination en Tunisie, il serait opportun de d\u00e9gager le ratio nombre des nouveaux contamin\u00e9s sur le total des personnes test\u00e9es par jour. 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