{"id":300728,"date":"2020-05-26T16:40:57","date_gmt":"2020-05-26T15:40:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/?p=300728"},"modified":"2020-05-26T16:43:22","modified_gmt":"2020-05-26T15:43:22","slug":"covid-19-retour-sur-les-causes-du-miracle-tunisien","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/2020\/05\/26\/covid-19-retour-sur-les-causes-du-miracle-tunisien\/","title":{"rendered":"Covid-19 : Retour sur les causes du \u00abmiracle tunisien\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Et si la population tunisienne \u00e9tait d\u00e9j\u00e0, en quelque sorte, \u00abvaccin\u00e9e\u00bb contre la Covid-19 et qu\u2019elle a atteint, d\u2019une certaine fa\u00e7on, la fameuse immunit\u00e9 collective ? La question peut surprendre, mais elle n\u2019est pas aussi saugrenue qu\u2019on le pense.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Par Pr Faouzi Addad <\/strong>*<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Tous les indicateurs de la pand\u00e9mie de la Covid-19 en Tunisie sont plut\u00f4t au vert, le nombre de d\u00e9c\u00e8s de patients en r\u00e9animation, ou celui de nouvelles personnes contamin\u00e9es n\u2019augmentent pratiquement plus depuis plus de 3 semaines. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les mesures prises dans notre pays lors des 3 jours de f\u00eate de l\u2019A\u00efd El-Fitr sont venues consolider ces bons r\u00e9sultats et l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie donne d\u00e9j\u00e0 l\u2019impression d\u2019\u00eatre derri\u00e8re nous, en tout cas dans sa premi\u00e8re vague, car la fin de la partie d\u00e9pend encore du comportement du virus \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle mondiale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mieux encore, aucun signe d\u2019une r\u00e9elle deuxi\u00e8me vague n\u2019a \u00e9t\u00e9 constat\u00e9, \u00e0 ce jour, dans tous les pays qui ont d\u00e9-confin\u00e9 depuis une, deux ou m\u00eame trois semaines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le confinement total peine \u00e0 prouver scientifiquement son b\u00e9n\u00e9fice<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

La Tunisie a-t-elle \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00abmiraculeusement\u00bb <\/em>\u00e9pargn\u00e9e? Pour certains, ce serait l\u00e0 le r\u00e9sultat des mesures de confinement mise en route tr\u00e8s t\u00f4t. Mais s\u2019il est incontestable que la distanciation sociale a \u00e9t\u00e9 tr\u00e8s b\u00e9n\u00e9fique, le confinement total peine \u00e0 prouver scientifiquement son b\u00e9n\u00e9fice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pour preuve, la comparaison entre la Belgique, la Su\u00e8de et les Pays-Bas, qui ont opt\u00e9 pour 3 strat\u00e9gies diff\u00e9rentes (confinement strict vs non-confinement vs confinement souple), a mis en \u00e9vidence 2,5 fois plus de morts en Belgique qu\u2019en Su\u00e8de, laquelle a mis\u00e9 d\u00e8s le d\u00e9but sur l\u2019immunit\u00e9 collective. Le confinement souple, quant \u00e0 lui, est devenu ni plus ni moins qu\u2019un non-confinement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En revanche, les cons\u00e9quences \u00e9conomiques sont beaucoup plus d\u00e9sastreuses en cas de confinement total ou souple.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On peut dire, bien s\u00fbr, que nos mesures de confinement ont \u00e9t\u00e9 plus pr\u00e9coces que dans certains pays europ\u00e9ens. Mais on doit reconna\u00eetre aussi que ces mesures n\u2019ont pas \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9ellement respect\u00e9es, notamment dans les quartiers populaires o\u00f9 la promiscuit\u00e9 est rest\u00e9e grande.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c0 ce \u00abmiracle\u00bb<\/em>, si miracle il y a eu, d\u2019autres explications sont donc n\u00e9cessaires, car comment se fait-il, par exemple, qu\u2019au tout d\u00e9but de l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie, et avant m\u00eame l\u2019entr\u00e9e en vigueur des mesures de confinement, le premier patient de Boumerdes (Mahdia) n\u2019a contamin\u00e9 que 2 personnes, alors qu\u2019il a beaucoup boug\u00e9 dans la r\u00e9gion durant la semaine ayant pr\u00e9c\u00e9d\u00e9 son d\u00e9pistage positif?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La moiti\u00e9 de la population pourrait \u00eatre immunis\u00e9e contre la Covid-19 sans y avoir \u00e9t\u00e9 expos\u00e9e<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

L\u2019explication viendrait peut-\u00eatre de l\u2019\u00e9tude am\u00e9ricaine publi\u00e9e r\u00e9cemment dans la revue \u2018\u2018Cell\u2019\u2019 <\/em>et qui montre (\u00e0 partir de pr\u00e9l\u00e8vements faits entre 2015 et 2018 sur 20 personnes) que 40 \u00e0 60% de la population pourrait \u00eatre immunis\u00e9e contre la Covid-19 sans y avoir \u00e9t\u00e9 expos\u00e9e. Des anticorps non sp\u00e9cifiques ont, en effet, \u00e9t\u00e9 retrouv\u00e9s sur ces personnes, et qui sont notamment dirig\u00e9s contre les prot\u00e9ines S et M du coronavirus. Cela suppose l\u2019existence d\u2019une immunit\u00e9 crois\u00e9e obtenue contre d\u2019autres coronavirus ayant probablement circul\u00e9 dans le pass\u00e9 sous la forme d\u2019\u00abun simple rhume\u00bb.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cette hypoth\u00e8se m\u00e9riterait d\u2019\u00eatre v\u00e9rifi\u00e9e par nos chercheurs car cela voudrait dire qu\u2019une grande partie de la population tunisienne est d\u00e9j\u00e0, en quelque sorte, \u00abvaccin\u00e9e\u00bb <\/em>contre la Covid-19 et que nous avons atteint, d\u2019une certaine fa\u00e7on, la fameuse immunit\u00e9 collective. C\u2019est l\u00e0, bien s\u00fbr, le sc\u00e9nario id\u00e9al. S\u2019il est v\u00e9rifi\u00e9, il n\u2019y aurait donc pas eu de \u00abmiracle tunisien\u00bb,<\/em> d\u2019autant que d\u2019autres pays du sud sont dans notre situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bref, la Covid-19 est loin d\u2019avoir livr\u00e9 tous ses myst\u00e8res et les scientifiques en sont r\u00e9duits \u00e0 multiplier les hypoth\u00e8ses et, parfois, les supputations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

* Professeur en cardiologie.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Et si la population tunisienne \u00e9tait d\u00e9j\u00e0, en quelque sorte, \u00abvaccin\u00e9e\u00bb contre la Covid-19 et qu\u2019elle a atteint, d\u2019une certaine fa\u00e7on, la fameuse immunit\u00e9 collective ? La question peut surprendre, mais elle n\u2019est pas aussi saugrenue qu\u2019on le pense. Par Pr Faouzi Addad *<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[992,998,1000,2433],"tags":[76739,75291,77995],"class_list":["post-300728","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-a-la-une","category-societe","category-tribune","category-tunisie","tag-confinement-total","tag-covid-19","tag-de-confinement"],"yoast_head":"\nCovid-19 : Retour sur les causes du \u00abmiracle tunisien\u00bb - Kapitalis<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/2020\/05\/26\/covid-19-retour-sur-les-causes-du-miracle-tunisien\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Covid-19 : Retour sur les causes du \u00abmiracle tunisien\u00bb - Kapitalis\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Et si la population tunisienne \u00e9tait d\u00e9j\u00e0, en quelque sorte, \u00abvaccin\u00e9e\u00bb contre la Covid-19 et qu\u2019elle a atteint, d\u2019une certaine fa\u00e7on, la fameuse immunit\u00e9 collective ? 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