L\u2019agence de notation Fitch Ratings a confirm\u00e9 la note souveraine de la Tunisie \u00e0 BB- et r\u00e9vis\u00e9 de stables \u00e0 n\u00e9gatives les perspectives sur le long terme.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Le rapport de Fitch explique cette d\u00e9valuation par la r\u00e9gression du secteur du tourisme dans le contexte des risques accrus de s\u00e9curit\u00e9, causant un ralentissement de la croissance du PIB de 2,3% en 2014 \u00e0 0,8% seulement en 2015.<\/p>\n
Les recettes du tourisme ont, en effet, baiss\u00e9 de 35% en glissement annuel en 2015 et de 50% en glissement annuel en janvier 2016, indique le rapport.<\/p>\n
L’agence a \u00e9galement revu \u00e0 la baisse ses pr\u00e9visions de croissance \u00e0 1,2 % pour 2016, de 2% dans l’examen pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent, et de 2% pour 2017 contre plus de 3% pr\u00e9c\u00e9demment.<\/p>\n
Cette r\u00e9vision \u00e0 la baisse, elle l\u2019explique par l\u2019augmentation des risques politiques int\u00e9rieurs et li\u00e9s \u00e0 la g\u00e9opolitique r\u00e9gionale.<\/p>\n
Ainsi la pr\u00e9sence croissante de l’organisation terroriste de l\u2019Etat islamique (Da\u00each) en Libye entra\u00eenerait de nouvelles retomb\u00e9es en Tunisie, en plus des menaces terroristes locales, explique le rapport.<\/p>\n
En outre, la nouvelle vague de protestations, d\u00e9clench\u00e9es en janvier 2016 \u00e0 cause du ch\u00f4mage dans les r\u00e9gions int\u00e9rieures d\u00e9favoris\u00e9es, a accentu\u00e9 le risque d’instabilit\u00e9 sociale et risque de compliquer la mise en \u0153uvre par le gouvernement des r\u00e9formes structurelles, souligne encore le rapport.<\/p>\n
Fitch estime que le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire \u00e0 5,3% du PIB en 2015, les augmentations salariales et les co\u00fbts de recapitalisation des banques n’ont pas am\u00e9lior\u00e9 la situation.<\/p>\n
Par ailleurs, la dette publique avoisinait 53% du PIB en 2015, par rapport \u00e0 celle de la moyenne des pays comparables qui est d’environ 43%, et est projet\u00e9e par Fitch pour atteindre 58,4% en 2017.<\/p>\n
Apr\u00e8s avoir rappel\u00e9 les n\u00e9gociations en cours avec le Fonds mon\u00e9taire international (FMI) pour un nouveau pr\u00eat, l’agence souligne, \u00e0 ce propos, que la Tunisie est tributaire de l’engagement des bailleurs de fonds pour combler son d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire.<\/p>\n
Ainsi, en 2015 environ la moiti\u00e9 des besoins de financement du gouvernement ont \u00e9t\u00e9 atteints gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 un soutien multilat\u00e9ral ou bilat\u00e9ral externe, et Fitch estime que ce soutien sera maintenu.<\/p>\n
Elle a rappel\u00e9, dans ce contexte, les financements octroy\u00e9s par la Banque mondiale (BM), l’Union europ\u00e9enne (UE) et la Banque africaine de d\u00e9veloppement (BAD).<\/p>\n
N\u00e9anmoins, l’agence craint des difficult\u00e9s pour r\u00e9duire les d\u00e9ficits courants et abaisser la dette publique et ext\u00e9rieure.<\/p>\n
Fitch pr\u00e9voit un d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire estim\u00e9 \u00e0 environ 7,5% du PIB en 2016 et 2017 et une dette ext\u00e9rieure nette de plus de 50% du PIB.<\/p>\n
I. B.<\/strong> (avec Tap).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"L\u2019agence de notation Fitch Ratings a confirm\u00e9 la note souveraine de la Tunisie \u00e0 BB- et r\u00e9vis\u00e9 de stables \u00e0 n\u00e9gatives les perspectives sur le long terme.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":42334,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[995,2433],"tags":[6777,815,897,908],"class_list":["post-42333","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economie","category-tunisie","tag-fitch-ratings","tag-securite","tag-terrorisme","tag-tourisme"],"yoast_head":"\n
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