{"id":6603725,"date":"2023-02-22T08:50:23","date_gmt":"2023-02-22T07:50:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/?p=6603725"},"modified":"2023-02-22T08:50:24","modified_gmt":"2023-02-22T07:50:24","slug":"sp-se-rappelle-au-souvenir-de-la-tunisie","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/2023\/02\/22\/sp-se-rappelle-au-souvenir-de-la-tunisie\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P se rappelle au souvenir de la Tunisie"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

L\u2019absence d\u2019accord de financement entre la Tunisie et le Fonds mon\u00e9taire international (FMI) et le manque de financements ext\u00e9rieurs placent le pays dans une situation de \u00abd\u00e9faut souverain\u00bb et pourraient co\u00fbter entre 4,1 et 7,6 milliards de dollars au syst\u00e8me bancaire tunisien, soit entre 8% et 14,8% du PIB nominal fin 2023, selon le sc\u00e9nario le plus extr\u00eame de l\u2019agence de notation Standard & Poor\u2019s (S&P).<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

Rappelons, \u00e0 ce propos, que La notation souveraine de la Tunisie par l\u2019agence S&P a \u00e9t\u00e9 retir\u00e9e en 2013 par la BCT.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dans un rapport rendu public lundi 20 f\u00e9vrier 2023, l\u2019agence de notation am\u00e9ricaine a pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 trois sc\u00e9narios hypoth\u00e9tiques allant du \u00abfaible stress\u00bb<\/em> au \u00abstress s\u00e9v\u00e8re\u00bb<\/em> et sur la base d\u2019enqu\u00eates aupr\u00e8s des investisseurs, l\u2019agence a pass\u00e9 en revue les impacts financiers et \u00e9conomiques potentiels sur le secteur bancaire, qui fait face \u00e0 un environnement \u00abambigu\u00bb<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u2019agence a \u00e9galement indiqu\u00e9 dans son rapport les impacts de la pand\u00e9mie de Covid-19 sur le pays et les moyens que la Tunisie pourrait utiliser pour financer ses d\u00e9ficits jumeaux et faire face aux risques mena\u00e7ant le syst\u00e8me bancaire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trois sc\u00e9narios<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

En sc\u00e9nario de \u00abstress s\u00e9v\u00e8re\u00bb<\/em>, S&P estime que le pays risque de faire d\u00e9faut \u00e0 ses obligations financi\u00e8res s\u2019il ne parvient pas \u00e0 signer un accord avec le FMI et \u00e0 obtenir d\u2019autres soutiens bilat\u00e9raux, notamment des pays du Golfe, ce qui d\u00e9t\u00e9riorerait la balance des paiements et les finances publiques. Cette situation se traduirait \u00e9galement par une \u00abforte\u00bb<\/em> d\u00e9pr\u00e9ciation du dinar tunisien et une \u00abhausse substantielle\u00bb<\/em> de l\u2019inflation et pousserait les banques \u00e0 subir de \u00ablourdes pertes\u00bb<\/em> et augmenterait leur besoin de recapitalisation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dans le cas du sc\u00e9nario \u00ablow stress\u00bb<\/em> le plus optimiste, l\u2019agence de notation am\u00e9ricaine estime qu\u2019un accord avec le FMI serait sign\u00e9 d\u2019ici la fin du premier trimestre 2023 et que la mise en place des r\u00e9formes r\u00e9tablirait \u00abprogressivement\u00bb<\/em> la confiance en la Tunisie et stimuler les investissements du secteur priv\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les finances publiques et ext\u00e9rieures devraient retrouver une trajectoire \u00absoutenable\u00bb<\/em>. Les banques locales pourraient commencer \u00e0 mettre en \u0153uvre les r\u00e9formes pilot\u00e9es par la Banque centrale de Tunisie (BCT) m\u00eame si le co\u00fbt du risque bancaire devrait rester \u00e9lev\u00e9 mais, sur une tendance baissi\u00e8re par rapport \u00e0 2020\/2021, pr\u00e9cise l\u2019agence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cependant, deux sources principales, externe et interne, restent valables pour ce sc\u00e9nario. Il s\u2019agit d\u2019un risque externe plus important de ralentissement en Europe et de hausse des prix des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res et de risques internes d\u2019instabilit\u00e9 politique ou d\u2019opposition majeure aux r\u00e9formes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Concernant le troisi\u00e8me sc\u00e9nario de \u00abstress mod\u00e9r\u00e9\u00bb<\/em>, Standard & Poor\u2019s suppose que l\u2019absence de mise en \u0153uvre des r\u00e9formes emp\u00eacherait le pays de mobiliser les ressources n\u00e9cessaires au financement de son budget, ce qui aura des impacts sur le soutien bilat\u00e9ral et multilat\u00e9ral.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les limites du march\u00e9 local<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Sans soutien ext\u00e9rieur, le gouvernement serait contraint de s\u2019appuyer sur le march\u00e9 local pour tenter de mobiliser des ressources aupr\u00e8s des banques ou d\u2019autres entreprises du secteur public disposant de liquidit\u00e9s suffisantes. Cela pourrait exacerber la pression sur les banques et \u00e9roder la rentabilit\u00e9, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 l\u2019agence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Au 9 f\u00e9vrier, le volume total de refinancement du syst\u00e8me bancaire aupr\u00e8s de la BCT a atteint 14,5 milliards de dinars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Selon la loi de finances de 2023, la Tunisie doit mobiliser 14,8 milliards de dinars d\u2019emprunts ext\u00e9rieurs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Le manque de financements ext\u00e9rieurs place la Tunisie dans une situation de d\u00e9faut souverain. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":6603958,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[995,2433],"tags":[106767,106768,388,478,81509,90142,77823,62643],"class_list":["post-6603725","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economie","category-tunisie","tag-defaut-souverain","tag-deficits-jumeaux","tag-fmi","tag-inflation","tag-sp","tag-standard-poors","tag-systeme-bancaire","tag-tunisie"],"yoast_head":"\nS&P se rappelle au souvenir de la Tunisie - Kapitalis<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/kapitalis.com\/tunisie\/2023\/02\/22\/sp-se-rappelle-au-souvenir-de-la-tunisie\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&P se rappelle au souvenir de la Tunisie - 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